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The Weekly paper of the New Communist Party of Britain

Lebanon truce – but for how long?

by our Arab Affairs correspondent

Secret talks between Iran and the USA begin as the guns fall silent on the Lebanese front and the Iranian blockade is lifted to allow free passage of all shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf. The Israelis reluctantly agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon under US pressure – and Iranian insistence. But while the spot price for crude oil has dropped to under $100 a barrel the market remains jittery as dealers speculate on what will happen at the next formal round of truce talks in Pakistan and whether the truce will go beyond the two-weeks both sides signed up for to get back to the bargaining table.

It is said that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion worth of Iranian financial assets in exchange for the Islamic Republic abandoning its stockpile of enriched uranium. As part of the ongoing negotiations, Washington and Tehran are discussing the future of Iran’s stockpiles and the size of Iranian funds that can be released, as well as the conditions under which the Islamic Republic will be able to use the money.

The Americans want Iran to agree to hand over all its nuclear material to them. The Iranians are only prepared to consider “down-blending” inside Iran. Both sides are also believed to be considering a compromise involving the shipment of some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium to a third country – possibly Russia – while the rest could be down-blended in Iran under international oversight. Negotiations also include a possible memorandum of understanding stipulating a “voluntary” moratorium by Iran on the nuclear enrichment of uranium, allowing Tehran to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes and the closure of all underground nuclear facilities.

Thousands are now making their way back home to southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs as the ceasefire kicks-in following weeks of Israeli aggression. The Lebanese Army has moved swiftly to open new routes to ease civilian movement after key bridges over the Litani river were destroyed in Israeli attacks, in an attempt to isolate the South and cut the connection between its regions. Refugees are now crossing over the Litani after Lebanese army l-Qasmiyeh bridge, which was partially destroyed during the Israeli onslaught.

There the Hezbollah militia and their allies broke the back of the Israeli offensive in fierce fighting over the last few weeks. The Zionists failed to stop the Hezbollah missiles from pounding targets in northern Israel. They couldn’t drive the resistance out of the south. They failed to ignite another Lebanese civil war, and although Israeli troops still hold some small pockets of land across the border, their dream of a new ‘buffer zone’ in south Lebanon is now in tatters. But Hezbollah has urged civilians to be cautious and delay returning to their homes.

The south Lebanon resistance movement warned against rushing back to south Lebanon, the Bekaa and Beirut’s southern suburbs until the situation becomes fully clear. The enemy they said “has a history of violating agreements and understandings” in their call for people to exercise patience and avoid returning prematurely as a necessary measure to protect lives amid uncertain security conditions.

In Washington, Donald Trump is telling the US media that the war with Iran will end soon, but there is little evidence to support this claim. Trump’s new-found zeal for peace is clearly aimed at mollifying anger on the American street at his bloodthirsty rants against the Islamic Republic while his sick depiction of himself as Jesus Christ has enraged the bible-bashers in his MAGA movement.

Given Trump’s record, many doubt whether the ceasefire between the USA and Iran will be extended – though at the end of the day that decision will be made by the ruling circles in the USA who ultimately can make – or indeed break – the likes of a Donald Trump.