New Worker Banner

The Weekly paper of the New Communist Party of Britain

Deal or no deal in the Gulf?

by our Arab Affairs correspondent

They say the Middle East cease fire still stands. But it was business as usual in the Persian Gulf this week with Iran and the USA trading blows for a couple of days before ending with Donald Trump yet again telling the world he’s on the brink of reaching a final settlement with the Islamic Republic.

This week’s violence began with the downing of an American Apache helicopter gunship – rapidly followed by a wave of American and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and the inevitable reprisal raids on northern Israel and the US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. The Iranians then announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, warning that ships attempting to transit the waterway could be targeted – provoking the usual panic on the oil market. It ended with Trump mouthing off his usual threats to hit Iran “very hard” and then equally publicly telling the world that his new offensive had been cancelled because talks with the leadership of the Islamic Republic were once again moving forward.

Trump said the “scheduled strikes and bombings” had been cancelled because of negotiations “brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved”. Discussions and final points had been agreed by all sides involved, Trump said, including the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia and several other countries in the Middle East. The fighting has been put on hold, at least for the time being. But what has actually been agreed remains a closely guarded secret known only to the American and Iranian leaders and the Turkish and Pakistani go-betweens who’ve been working behind the scenes to bring both sides to the bargaining table.

Publicly the Iranians say there’s been no agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, saying only that new nuclear negotiations would begin 60 days after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding with the USA that was drafted back in March. Likewise, they say they made no agreement to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz (a matter Iran says is now only the concern of themselves and Oman), and that the preliminary agreement relates only to the normalisation of passage through the waterway and maritime security.

They say that some of Iran’s frozen assets will be released upon the signing of a deal, with further release, the lifting of sanctions, and war reparations to be negotiated at a later date.

And, according to the Iranian media, the Americans have committed themselves to ending Israel’s ongoing invasion and offensive in Lebanon.

This may be music to the ears of the Saudis and the oil-rich Arab Gulf states who desperately want to see the end of the double blockade of the Persian Gulf but it falls far short of the “victory” Trump says has been within his grasp since the war began. And, needless to say, it gives nothing to the Netanyahu government in Israel, whose dreams of “regime change” and a “Greater Israel” are rapidly fading away.

Trump has lashed out at the Iranian media for leaking the alleged terms for the renewal of the cease-fire agreement, calling it “fake news” that had “NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing”. But no-one believes a word the American president says one way or another these days…